What a Big Bear Airbnb Really Earns After Expenses
How much does a Big Bear Airbnb actually earn after expenses?
The median short-term rental in Big Bear Lake grosses about $46,000 a year at roughly $319 a night and 38% occupancy. After management, cleaning, transient occupancy tax, permit fees, STR insurance, propane, snow removal, and winter utilities, a cabin grossing around $50,000 typically nets in the low-to-mid $20,000s before the mortgage. The gap between those two numbers is where most Big Bear investors either overpay or walk away from a good deal.
By Rachael Smith | September 25, 2026
There's one number that does more damage to Big Bear investors than any other: $46,000.
It's the median annual revenue for a short-term rental here, and when people hear it they split into two camps. One group gets excited, stops doing math, and overpays for a cabin. The other group decides it isn't enough and walks away from a property that would have paid them well for a decade.
Both reactions come from the same mistake — treating a median as a forecast.
I sell these cabins, I've owned short-term rentals myself, and I'm an Airbnb Superhost. So the numbers below aren't pulled off a spreadsheet somebody found online. They're what these properties actually do, month to month, in every season.
What the $46,000 median hides — in both directions
AirDNA and similar third-party trackers put the median Big Bear Lake short-term rental at roughly $46,000 a year. Average nightly rate lands near $319. Occupancy sits around 38%.
Here's what that median conceals.
Pulling the number down: a large share of Big Bear listings are part-time rentals. Owners block half the calendar for their own trips. Or they list a tired two-bedroom with dark iPhone photos and no hot tub and wonder why it sits.
Pulling it up: a well-run, professionally managed four- or five-bedroom in Moon Ridge or Boulder Bay — walkable to the slopes, hot tub, game room — clears $46,000 without much drama.
Treat the median as a starting line, not your number. What you actually earn depends on three things: the cabin, the location, and how you run it. Watch Rachael break this down at 1:03.
If you want to see this play out on a real property rather than in the abstract, my breakdown of what an A-frame cabin actually earns on Airbnb in Big Bear walks through one specific cabin's revenue line by line.
The expense stack nobody puts in the pro forma
Gross revenue is not what lands in your pocket. Here's what comes out of it before you ever touch a mortgage payment.
- Management. If you're not local and you hand the property to a full-service manager, budget 20–30% of revenue straight off the top.
- Cleaning. Every single turnover. In a ski town with a hot tub, those turns stack up fast — and guests who drive four hours for a weekend generate more of them than you'd think.
- Transient occupancy tax. You collect it and remit it as a condition of your short-term rental permit.
- Permit fees. Annual, and non-negotiable.
- Insurance. STR coverage in a designated fire zone costs meaningfully more than a standard homeowner's policy. This is the line item flatlanders underestimate most.
- Mountain operating costs. Propane, snow removal, higher utilities all winter long, and real wear and tear from both guests and the elements.
Stack it all up and a cabin grossing $50,000 nets somewhere in the low-to-mid $20,000s — before your mortgage.
That's not a bad number. It's a very different number.
And this is the part that matters: if you underwrite the deal at $50,000, you will be disappointed by March. Not because the cabin failed, but because you built your plan on the wrong line of the income statement. Hear the full cost breakdown at 2:05.
Want more Big Bear investment math like this? I break down real cabin numbers, permit rules, and market data every week on my YouTube channel. Subscribe here so you catch the next one.
Why today's market tilts toward the buyer
Here's the piece most investors miss entirely.
Big Bear is a buyer's market right now — a real one, not a headline one. There's close to 11 months of inventory sitting on the market. The median home takes around 97 days to sell. Roughly 72% of homes close under list price, and only about 10% go over asking.
For an investor, that math is simple: you have leverage on the buy.
And in this business, the return isn't made when you sell. It's made when you buy.
Every $10,000 you negotiate off the purchase price lowers your basis, lowers your payment, and lowers the occupancy you need to break even. Run that in reverse — a cabin you overpaid for by $40,000 needs more booked nights every single year for as long as you own it, in a market where occupancy averages 38%.
So the softness that's scaring off nervous buyers is exactly what a disciplined investor running real numbers should be walking toward. See the market data at 3:12, and for the broader picture on where prices and days-on-market are heading, my Big Bear real estate market update covers the latest sales data.
Three checks before you write an offer
So how do you tell whether a specific cabin pencils out? Three things, in this order, every time.
1. Get the real permit status.
The rules inside the City of Big Bear Lake are different from the unincorporated county. And here's the part that catches people: the permit does not automatically transfer to you when you buy. If the cabin can't legally be rented short-term under your ownership, none of the revenue math matters at all. Verify this before you get emotionally attached to a property, not during escrow.
2. Get the actual trailing revenue.
Ask for real host statements from the last 12 months. Not a projection. Not a screenshot of a good July. The trailing twelve tells you how the cabin performs in March and October, which is where mountain rentals live or die.
3. Stress test it.
Run your numbers at conservative occupancy. Build your worst case around 38%, not a dreamy 90%. If the cabin still carries itself at conservative occupancy, you have a real deal.
If it only works when every weekend books at peak rate, you don't have an investment. You have hope — and hope is not a strategy. Walk through all three checks at 4:10.
These three checks are the same work I do with every investor client before they write an offer. If you're still at the earlier stage of figuring out whether Big Bear is the right market for you at all, start with what you really need to know before buying in Big Bear Lake.
The whole game is knowing the difference
Here's the truth about Big Bear short-term rentals: the good ones are genuinely good, and the bad ones look exactly the same in photos.
Same hot tub. Same pine trees. Same wide-angle lens. One of them nets you $25,000 a year and appreciates. The other bleeds you every winter and you list it in three years at a loss.
The difference is permit status, trailing revenue, and honest occupancy assumptions — and all three are knowable before you own the property.
Run the real numbers. Buy right. This market will pay you for it.
If you want help pulling the permit status and trailing revenue on a specific cabin, call or text me directly at 909.744.2190. No pressure, no pitch — I'll tell you honestly whether a cabin makes sense or whether you should keep looking.
And if you'd rather keep doing your own homework first, that's the right instinct. I publish this kind of breakdown — real properties, real numbers, real permit rules — every week. Subscribe on YouTube and you'll have the market data before you need it.
About Rachael Smith
Rachael Smith is a top-producing real estate agent with RE/MAX Big Bear, specializing in mountain homes, short-term rental investments, and luxury properties in Big Bear Lake and surrounding areas. With over a decade of experience and hundreds of homes sold, she helps buyers, sellers, and investors make smart, strategic real estate decisions. Through her strong online presence and data-driven approach, Rachael connects clients with opportunities both on and off the market.
Rachael Smith-Meadors, Broker Associate, RE/MAX Big Bear | DRE #01923537 | 909.744.2190 | rachaelsmithrealestate@gmail.com
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